Ebene News – Covid-19 and unemployment: Macron faced with a “dramatic” situation among young people

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According to economist Henri Sterdyniak, the sharp drop in unemployment assessed in France in the fourth quarter is distorted Many job seekers are not taken into account So the start of the September 2021 school year may be complicated for the government, especially concerning young people

Despite a second confinement and restrictive health measures, unemployment fell sharply during the fourth quarter of 2020 according to INSEE The number of job seekers within the meaning of the International Labor Office (ILO) fell by 340,000 to reach 2.4 million in France (excluding Mayotte) From October to December, the unemployment rate fell 1.1 points to 8% of the working population And this after the jump of two points in the previous quarter Better again, the unemployment rate is almost stable (–0.1 point) compared to the end of 2019

Unemployment rate fell 1.1 points in the fourth quarter, a facade improvement >> https: // tco / 56ZMm6V45G picTwittercom / g8HsnGXFbp

So, champagne? Henri Sterdyniak, member of the group of Terrified Economists and researcher at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures (OFCE), respondent at Sputnik’s microphone not to rejoice too quickly:

The economist emphasizes that many companies do not welcome job seekers because they are unable to hire, given the economic situation.In addition, certain sectors such as catering, events or culture are almost at a standstill People likely to seek a position in these fields postpone their procedures “If you are looking for a job as a cook now, you stay at home”, launches Henri Sterdyniak

Many job seekers therefore find themselves outside the statistics As Henri Sterdyniak specifies, to be considered unemployed within the meaning of the International Labor Office (ILO), it is necessary to have carried out a search for employment in the last four weeks You must also declare yourself available within two weeks for a position

INSEE moderates its own figures: “This drop is partly a” trompe-l’oeil “: due to the second confinement, between October 30 and December 15, a large number of people have shifted to the ‘inactivity, notably for lack of being able to carry out active job searches under the usual conditions “

Such a context is felt in the activity rate, which fell by 0.2 point during the fourth quarter The fall is even more evident among 15-24 year olds (–0.9 point)

Figures to be (strongly) qualified therefore, but good figures all the same for Sylvain Larrieu The head of the synthesis and conjuncture division of the labor market at INSEE notes, for example, “the good surprise” of the weak decline in salaried employment in the last quarter of 2020 (-0.2%) Same story with Éric Heyer, director of the analysis and forecasting department at the French observatory of economic conditions He told AFP: “These figures are still good compared to what we expected two or three months ago The recession is less recognized, so there is less job destruction”

Another important data to explain the statistical improvement: partial unemployment In December, 2.4 million employees still benefit from the government’s flagship support system Moreover, INSEE points out that the number of people in “Underemployment” has grown by a million in one year

The current partial activity rates will be extended until the end of March: 0 remains chargeable for the sectors most affected by the crisis, 15% for the others We will remain mobilized to protect jobs and businesses as long as the crisis will require it imageTwittercom / moumt4gUdN

Élisabeth Borne, Minister of Labor, announced the extension until the end of March of the coverage of partial unemployment at 100% in the sectors most affected Rate reduced to 85% in other activities

According to the Ministry of Labor, the support of the partial activity will have cost the trifle of 27.1 billion euros in 2020 More and more voices are rising to warn of the imminent end of the “What it costs” advocated by Emmanuel Macron Last January, the Deputy Minister in charge of public accounts, Olivier Dussopt, warned: “If 2021 will mark the end of the crisis and the pandemic as everyone hopes, we must also that 2021 marks the end of “whatever it costs”

Éric Heyer points out to AFP that the government’s decisions on the price in charge of the partial activity will be decisive in the evolution of the number of job seekers: “If the government reduces it, it is possible that some companies say to themselves that it costs them too much and lay off workers The expected rebound in growth, from 4 to 6%, would then paradoxically result in a sharp rise in unemployment “

Henri Sterdyniak promises a complicated return to school for the government According to him, the aid systems will gradually come to an end It will then be necessary to draw up an assessment and look at which companies can start again and must stop “A delicate sorting will be necessary We will say to certain companies: “In any case, you were already in poor health before the crisis and you must declare yourself bankrupt” We will explain to others that they are in sectors which are likely to suffer such as aeronautics, tourism, etc. They must therefore be reconverted. Finally, we help others because we consider that they have been hit temporarily by the crisis and that they have a future “, predicts the economist

Our speaker asserts that the government must abandon its reform of unemployment compensation His opponents believe that it reduces the rights of job seekers “As a reminder, four measures of the reform have been suspended and postponed, at least until April 1, 2021 And they become the object of adjustments by then These four measures are as follows: the tightening of the conditions for opening rights, the modification of the method of calculation of the daily reference wage which would lead to a decrease in unemployment benefits, the degression of the indemnity for high incomes and the bonus-malus on short contracts ”, reports Capital

Henry Sterdyniak assures us that, on the contrary, the executive “will have to put in place economic support for a while” “This is the big debate that will animate the fourth quarter of 2021”, he says

The member of the appalled Economists is concerned about the situation of young people On the positive side, we can note that the share of 15-29 year olds without employment or training decreased by 0.5 point during the last quarter of 2020. young people, thanks to aid, we have enabled the recruitment of 1.2 million permanent or fixed-term contracts of more than three months between August and December, almost as many as in 2018 and 2019 ”, welcomed on February 16 Élisabeth Borne on BFM Business

But many of them, especially students, are in great difficulty The images use them queuing in the cold to obtain food aid are multiplying on social networks “The situation of young people is even more dramatic than that of the rest of the population In September, two generations of graduates, 2020 and 2021, will enter a disaster-stricken labor market ”, warns Henri Sterdyniak According to him, Emmanuel Macron and the executive will have a lot to do to manage the problem:

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Ebene News – Covid-19 and unemployment: Macron faced with a “dramatic” situation among young people

Source: https://fr.sputniknews.com/economie/202102171045236728-covid-19-et-chomage-macron-face-a-une-situation-dramatique-chez-les-jeunes/